A pandemic is a global outbreak of disease that affects more people than an epidemic, and spreads across continents. It is usually a result of a new virus, but can also be the result of other causes, such as an infection with Zika or cholera. In recent decades, several trends have affected the probability and severity of pandemics, including population growth and urbanization, greater demand for animal proteins, increased travel and connectivity between populations, habitat loss, climate change, and increased interactions between humans and animals (Tyler 2016).
The term “pandemic” has been used throughout history to describe significant public health events such as the plague caused by fleas that hitched rides on ships to Europe in the 14th century; the 1918 influenza A pandemic; and more recently, cholera, AIDS, and SARS. Severe premodern pandemics have been associated with major social and political upheaval, driven by large mortality shocks that reduce economic activity and erode social capital.
In modern times, the risk of a pandemic is generally lower than in premodern times due to advances in vaccination and other preventive measures, and better detection and monitoring of disease. But the risk remains, and is heightened by the rapidity with which disease can spread worldwide through air travel and other mechanisms. Economic simulations suggest that a severe pandemic could cut world GDP by about 5 percent. Indirect economic impacts may be more significant, because of the aversion to restaurants and other public spaces, workplace absenteeism, and other behavioral changes that reduce consumption and production.
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